Hu Ruixuan, the head of the Heilongjiang Province Soil and Fertilizer Management Station, pointed out at the Heilong Province Soil and Fertilizer Work Conference held from December 27 to 28 that, due to the current price of the fertilizer market, the fertilizer market may appear to be phased out of order, which will affect the farmers ’fertilizers planted next spring. The lack of input may even lead to a delay in agricultural time, which should be highly valued by the relevant fertilizer authorities, fertilizer production enterprises and farmers.
Since the beginning of this year, the chemical fertilizer market has exhibited abnormal phenomena of ups and downs and dramatic changes. In the first half of 2008, the fertilizer market climbed strongly. The price of urea rose from a high of 1,800 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to a new high of 2,500 yuan in June, and 64% of diammonium phosphate rose to 4,800 yuan. High Point. After September, the country continued its special tariff policy again, and urea even implemented a high tariff rate of 150%, which completely blocked the export routes of various fertilizers. At this time, the international sulphur price began to dive dramatically and plunged 90% in 3 months, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of ammonium phosphate. Nitrogen fertilizer fell by 12.8% year-on-year, phosphate fertilizer fell by 23.9% year-on-year, and potassium fertilizer fell by 38.3% year-on-year. At the same time, the sharp drop in international crude oil prices and the downturn in the entire international market are the reasons why the fertilizer market in 2008 slipped from the peak at the beginning of the year to the trough. At present, the price of urea fell below 1,700 yuan, and 64% diammonium phosphate fell below the 3,000 yuan mark.
Analyzing the current status of the fertilizer market, the prices of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are close to the cost price, and there is no room for price reduction, but there is room for price reduction of potash fertilizer. It is expected that the price of potash fertilizer may fall below 3,000 yuan. The first reason is that the current price of potash fertilizer deviates too much from the actual value; second, it is affected by the pull-down forces of the price of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer; third, because the price of potash fertilizer is at the highest price of the three elements of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, many compound fertilizer manufacturers have lowered The application ratio of potash fertilizer has caused the potash fertilizer consumption market to shrink greatly.
The price reduction of chemical fertilizers is a boon for farmers. But Hu Ruixuan also has concerns, because compound fertilizer manufacturers are reluctant to purchase raw materials. With the passage of time, as the spring sowing approaching in 2009, the entire chemical fertilizer market will have a period of insufficient supply. Hu Ruixuan calculated the time. In mid-January 2009 or after the Spring Festival, the effective time until spring sowing is only about two months. Whether it is chemical fertilizer production enterprises, the time for raw material procurement, production operations and farmers to buy fertilizer is very urgent. Because of the limitation of the production equipment of chemical fertilizer production enterprises, the production volume of chemical fertilizer production enterprises is difficult to complete, so it will lead to the phenomenon of insufficient production and the supply of fertilizers. If there is a shortage of fertilizer supply, it may lead to a periodic increase in fertilizer prices, which will affect farmers' insufficient input of fertilizers, and at the same time cause farmers to postpone farming.
In order to avoid the phenomenon of staged stalls in chemical fertilizers, Hu Ruixuan suggested: First, relevant departments at all levels actively publicize the situation of the fertilizer market, let farmers recognize the situation, dispel worries, and follow up fertilizer as early as possible; Second, in view of the current actual situation of relatively high prices of potash fertilizer, you can Adopt the strategy of staged fertilization, that is, focus on the application of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers in the early stage, and supplement the potassium fertilizer in the later stage; third, call on farmers to apply more organic fertilizers, which can supplement potassium; fourth, the fertilizer production enterprises should actively organize the supply of goods when the opportunity is feasible, Early production; Fifth, the sales enterprise should develop chemical fertilizer supply channels in various ways to increase the supply of spring sowing to meet the needs of farmers; Sixth, the government should increase investment and actively coordinate loans to ensure that the spring sowing is carried out as scheduled.
Since the beginning of this year, the chemical fertilizer market has exhibited abnormal phenomena of ups and downs and dramatic changes. In the first half of 2008, the fertilizer market climbed strongly. The price of urea rose from a high of 1,800 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of the year to a new high of 2,500 yuan in June, and 64% of diammonium phosphate rose to 4,800 yuan. High Point. After September, the country continued its special tariff policy again, and urea even implemented a high tariff rate of 150%, which completely blocked the export routes of various fertilizers. At this time, the international sulphur price began to dive dramatically and plunged 90% in 3 months, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of ammonium phosphate. Nitrogen fertilizer fell by 12.8% year-on-year, phosphate fertilizer fell by 23.9% year-on-year, and potassium fertilizer fell by 38.3% year-on-year. At the same time, the sharp drop in international crude oil prices and the downturn in the entire international market are the reasons why the fertilizer market in 2008 slipped from the peak at the beginning of the year to the trough. At present, the price of urea fell below 1,700 yuan, and 64% diammonium phosphate fell below the 3,000 yuan mark.
Analyzing the current status of the fertilizer market, the prices of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are close to the cost price, and there is no room for price reduction, but there is room for price reduction of potash fertilizer. It is expected that the price of potash fertilizer may fall below 3,000 yuan. The first reason is that the current price of potash fertilizer deviates too much from the actual value; second, it is affected by the pull-down forces of the price of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer; third, because the price of potash fertilizer is at the highest price of the three elements of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, many compound fertilizer manufacturers have lowered The application ratio of potash fertilizer has caused the potash fertilizer consumption market to shrink greatly.
The price reduction of chemical fertilizers is a boon for farmers. But Hu Ruixuan also has concerns, because compound fertilizer manufacturers are reluctant to purchase raw materials. With the passage of time, as the spring sowing approaching in 2009, the entire chemical fertilizer market will have a period of insufficient supply. Hu Ruixuan calculated the time. In mid-January 2009 or after the Spring Festival, the effective time until spring sowing is only about two months. Whether it is chemical fertilizer production enterprises, the time for raw material procurement, production operations and farmers to buy fertilizer is very urgent. Because of the limitation of the production equipment of chemical fertilizer production enterprises, the production volume of chemical fertilizer production enterprises is difficult to complete, so it will lead to the phenomenon of insufficient production and the supply of fertilizers. If there is a shortage of fertilizer supply, it may lead to a periodic increase in fertilizer prices, which will affect farmers' insufficient input of fertilizers, and at the same time cause farmers to postpone farming.
In order to avoid the phenomenon of staged stalls in chemical fertilizers, Hu Ruixuan suggested: First, relevant departments at all levels actively publicize the situation of the fertilizer market, let farmers recognize the situation, dispel worries, and follow up fertilizer as early as possible; Second, in view of the current actual situation of relatively high prices of potash fertilizer, you can Adopt the strategy of staged fertilization, that is, focus on the application of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers in the early stage, and supplement the potassium fertilizer in the later stage; third, call on farmers to apply more organic fertilizers, which can supplement potassium; fourth, the fertilizer production enterprises should actively organize the supply of goods when the opportunity is feasible, Early production; Fifth, the sales enterprise should develop chemical fertilizer supply channels in various ways to increase the supply of spring sowing to meet the needs of farmers; Sixth, the government should increase investment and actively coordinate loans to ensure that the spring sowing is carried out as scheduled.
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