(imports, Slowing Economy Put Paper Demand and Prices in Question)
Although there are predictions that the price of paper will rise sharply from two to three years from 2000, there are actually enough practical problems to make this prediction impossible.
The problem is not the cause of weak domestic demand and oversupply. For many U.S. manufacturers, the paper produced by foreign companies, especially new suppliers in Europe and Asia, is absolutely competitive because of its low price.
Imports: Mergers and acquisitions between the U.S. dollar and the company affect the U.S. market According to the U.S. Business Bureau's import data, imports of non-wood pulp paper increased by 32% in the first nine months of 2000, instead of non-coated non-wood pulp paper. At the annual basis of 1.5 million tons, it increased by 1.7%, gloss paper increased by 44%, uncoated wood pulp paper increased by 11%, and LWC (lightweight coated paper) increased by 13%.
Europe’s paper industry accounts for 28% of the world’s total paper and board products. It created an unprecedented record in 1999, increased by 6.9% in the first half of 2000, and may continue to grow in the second half of the year, especially in the After having the ability to produce coated products. About 20% of total European paper and paperboard exports have entered the U.S. market. In 2000, one-third of U.S. new coated paper imports were supplied by European suppliers.
In the next 18 months, unless the exchange rate of the euro in the market changes, the pressure of European imports on the coated paper market in the United States will also increase.
According to the annual wood pulp paper supply/demand report provided by Cepiprint, the production capacity and SC rating of the coating machine and the three large LWC equipments are expected to far exceed the total consumption in Europe in 2002. Also in the field of coating non-wood pulp paper, on the basis of a productivity increase of 11% in 1999, three new world-class paper production equipment and large consumption from coated paper to uncoated paper mean that in the future There will be a net increase of 900,000 tons in two years. The current worldwide cooperation trend will have any impact in the future, and there is no exact standard to accurately measure it. But in 2000, transatlantic product imports have brought Stora Enso into the US market, especially through the largest coating in the United States. Product manufacturer Consolidated Paper. At the same time, UPM-Kymmene, Europe’s second-largest paper producer, now owns 14% of the LWC market through Blandin, an affiliate in Minnesota, and Repap, a founding company in New Brunswick, Canada.
Pricing, transportation, throughput: The plan is very complicated. It is complicated to predict the price of paper. The supply and demand number is useful, but it does not fully explain the pricing plan. As of now, the decrease in the price of coated non-wood pulp paper has affected the lowest price of the product, the demand for coating products is twice that of non-coated products, and the sales volume of No. 3 coated products is higher than that of No. 5 coating. There are few products. And with the increase in postage in January 2001, it will have an impact on direct mail products and magazines, making the demand outlook even more uncertain.
The import volume was undoubtedly the main factor in the increase of 12.5% ​​in the advertising pages of Chinese magazines in the ten months of 2000. However, data collected by the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) indicated that printing and writing in the United States The amount of paper transported decreased by 1.0%. Including that the coated paper transport volume decreased by 0.3%, the uncoated non-wood pulp paper transport volume decreased by 2.0%, and the non-coated wood pulp paper and SC paper transport volume decreased by 0.4%.
The demand for advertising paper and magazine paper is not exactly the same. This may be one of the reasons. In particular, sometimes some new technical publications with small circulation are all printed on this paper. For example, according to the Publishers Information Bureau, the circulation of the top ten magazines in the United States dropped by 2.6% in 1999, while the circulation of the top 25 magazines decreased by only 0.7%. The last 50 in the name rose by 2.1%.
In general, the price of printing paper in early 2001 was higher than the same period of last year. The price of offset non-wood pulp paper has increased by 6%; the price of coated No. 3 paper has increased by approximately 5%, but the sales volume has decreased; the price of LWC has increased by nearly 6%; and the price of SC-A has increased year by year. 8%.
Industry data shows that demand has steadily increased, and imports have also seen double-digit growth, while the volume of print and writing paper from the United States has shown negative growth and decreased. At the end of 2000, paper manufacturers around the world had prevented the accumulation of paper stocks by substantially reducing production, which had led to a reduction in the price of paper.
In the United States, since December 2000, the International Paper Group has reduced the production of uncoated non-wood pulp paper by 18% to approximately 820,000 tons by shutting down one production line of two manufacturing plants and a third manufacturing plant. According to AF&PA's Annual Capacity Survey, these reductions account for approximately 5.3% of the total production of US domestic counterparts. With the addition of 246,000 tons of production reductions from five other companies (including Willamette, Plainwell, and Crown Vantage, USA), the total production of non-coated non-wood pulp paper will be reduced by 1.1 million tons in 2001 and the following year. , showing a negative growth situation.
In recent years, the market share of non-coated non-wood pulp papers in commercial printing has gradually been occupied by non-wood pulp papers, however, there is an increasing trend on cut sheets, due to the expansion of the SOHO (home office) market. The reduction in total production eventually led to a major advantage in the new world-class commercial paper machines that produce low-priced paper.
Do not underestimate the potential of uncoated paper. With its increase in the cut sheet and offset printing market, it is estimated that uncoated paper can meet at least the development needs of GDP (gross domestic product). In addition, the impact of short live printing technology on the demand for non-coated non-wood pulp paper will be further investigated.
As fewer people engage in printing operations, productivity declines. The industry's new goal is to find “sweets†that are suitable for operation and cost-effectiveness, rather than pursue continuous use and minimum production costs. That applies only to lowering the average cost over the past two decades.
Annual gross output data analysis often describes the state of the US paper industry. The latest survey report shows the number of informal statistics of low-cost products around the world, the impact of the high US dollar exchange rate on the import and export environment, and the impact of mergers and acquisitions on eliminating unprofitable assets.
Changes in the market conditions and new technologies for grinding wood pulp paper are driving the largest growth in the printing paper industry. According to the AF&PA survey, non-coated and coated groundwood paper accounted for approximately 23% of the total US print and writing paper in 2000, and the current total of these two products is expected to be printed in 2003. More than two-thirds of the total amount of writing paper is still available.
Supercalendered papers have high transportation costs and prices, and this is where improvements need to be made. Commercial printers in magazines and catalogues are turning to the new SC-A non-coated wood pulp paper. Due to refinement and polishing technologies, there has been some improvement. The price and quality of the paper are more than that of LWC paper. competitive. According to the New York City SC Council, the paper used by the two large bill producers turned from LWC to SC-A. The lower end of the spectrum of polished wood pulp (SC-B, SC-C, and SNC) is gaining more and more share in the free interleaving product market.
According to the total data of AF&PA, the total amount of non-coated wood pulp paper in the United States is estimated to increase at a rate of 5.9% per year and can exceed 2.4 million tons by 2001-3. Much of this added value is due to the fact that many manufacturers have switched from producing newsprint to producing non-coated groundwood paper, and many machines have been retrofitted in Texas.
The total amount of coated wood pulp paper in the United States in 2001-3 is estimated to increase by 5.2 million tons, or by 3.4% annually. This relatively rapid growth partially reflects the shift in equipment from newsprint in 2001. This expansion includes the impact of three new coating machines developed by Bowater, which use imported newsprint as a basic material in the Nuway process.
Recycled paper: No change Recycled paper is an area that has not changed. The consumption of recycled paper by the U.S. federal government and environmentally aware state governments, schools, and businesses has been maintained, but there has been no increase. Although AF&PA did not disclose actual total production data for recycled paper, there has been no change in the consumption of recycled paper for printing and writing since 1995. At that time, the price of paper reached the highest point, and many companies no longer increased the purchase of recycled paper.
The original Fort James Group (now part of Georgia-Pacific) claimed last year that according to the company's market survey, the main factor that hinders the further development of recycled paper is that there are many other additional costs. The company believes that if the customer purchases recycled paper at a non-recycled price, the market for recycled office paper will double. As a result, the company's Camas manufacturing facility in Washington DC used a huge new waste paper deinking facility to start selling a series of recycled photocopy papers containing 10% recycled content, at about the same price as North America's non-recycled paper.
Another Georgia-Pacific remanufacturing company in Kalamazoo, Michigan, was not so fortunate. In late 2000, the company announced that it would permanently shut down used equipment and cancel the production of nearly 30,000 tons of recycled paper each year.
All in all, the development trend of the paper mills in the coming year has already reached a general outline. Declining demand from the economic downturn will eventually lead to further price declines, and printers will import more paper or continue to use more competitive paper. Due to the recent cost pressure brought by the increase in pulp prices, coupled with the increase in postage and the reduction in advertising inserts, the price of coated paper has a downward trend.
Unlike the above predictions, SC paper and ground wood pulp paper, which have gradually increased their share of the interleaf, catalog, magazine, and newspaper printing markets. In addition, with the passage of time, uncoated non-wood pulp paper will become a star in the paper market. Although the import of paper from Asia and Latin America may disrupt the balance between supply and demand, the U.S. manufacturer’s joint group will undoubtedly be able to regulate production with regulations.
Although there are predictions that the price of paper will rise sharply from two to three years from 2000, there are actually enough practical problems to make this prediction impossible.
The problem is not the cause of weak domestic demand and oversupply. For many U.S. manufacturers, the paper produced by foreign companies, especially new suppliers in Europe and Asia, is absolutely competitive because of its low price.
Imports: Mergers and acquisitions between the U.S. dollar and the company affect the U.S. market According to the U.S. Business Bureau's import data, imports of non-wood pulp paper increased by 32% in the first nine months of 2000, instead of non-coated non-wood pulp paper. At the annual basis of 1.5 million tons, it increased by 1.7%, gloss paper increased by 44%, uncoated wood pulp paper increased by 11%, and LWC (lightweight coated paper) increased by 13%.
Europe’s paper industry accounts for 28% of the world’s total paper and board products. It created an unprecedented record in 1999, increased by 6.9% in the first half of 2000, and may continue to grow in the second half of the year, especially in the After having the ability to produce coated products. About 20% of total European paper and paperboard exports have entered the U.S. market. In 2000, one-third of U.S. new coated paper imports were supplied by European suppliers.
In the next 18 months, unless the exchange rate of the euro in the market changes, the pressure of European imports on the coated paper market in the United States will also increase.
According to the annual wood pulp paper supply/demand report provided by Cepiprint, the production capacity and SC rating of the coating machine and the three large LWC equipments are expected to far exceed the total consumption in Europe in 2002. Also in the field of coating non-wood pulp paper, on the basis of a productivity increase of 11% in 1999, three new world-class paper production equipment and large consumption from coated paper to uncoated paper mean that in the future There will be a net increase of 900,000 tons in two years. The current worldwide cooperation trend will have any impact in the future, and there is no exact standard to accurately measure it. But in 2000, transatlantic product imports have brought Stora Enso into the US market, especially through the largest coating in the United States. Product manufacturer Consolidated Paper. At the same time, UPM-Kymmene, Europe’s second-largest paper producer, now owns 14% of the LWC market through Blandin, an affiliate in Minnesota, and Repap, a founding company in New Brunswick, Canada.
Pricing, transportation, throughput: The plan is very complicated. It is complicated to predict the price of paper. The supply and demand number is useful, but it does not fully explain the pricing plan. As of now, the decrease in the price of coated non-wood pulp paper has affected the lowest price of the product, the demand for coating products is twice that of non-coated products, and the sales volume of No. 3 coated products is higher than that of No. 5 coating. There are few products. And with the increase in postage in January 2001, it will have an impact on direct mail products and magazines, making the demand outlook even more uncertain.
The import volume was undoubtedly the main factor in the increase of 12.5% ​​in the advertising pages of Chinese magazines in the ten months of 2000. However, data collected by the American Forest & Paper Association (AF&PA) indicated that printing and writing in the United States The amount of paper transported decreased by 1.0%. Including that the coated paper transport volume decreased by 0.3%, the uncoated non-wood pulp paper transport volume decreased by 2.0%, and the non-coated wood pulp paper and SC paper transport volume decreased by 0.4%.
The demand for advertising paper and magazine paper is not exactly the same. This may be one of the reasons. In particular, sometimes some new technical publications with small circulation are all printed on this paper. For example, according to the Publishers Information Bureau, the circulation of the top ten magazines in the United States dropped by 2.6% in 1999, while the circulation of the top 25 magazines decreased by only 0.7%. The last 50 in the name rose by 2.1%.
In general, the price of printing paper in early 2001 was higher than the same period of last year. The price of offset non-wood pulp paper has increased by 6%; the price of coated No. 3 paper has increased by approximately 5%, but the sales volume has decreased; the price of LWC has increased by nearly 6%; and the price of SC-A has increased year by year. 8%.
Industry data shows that demand has steadily increased, and imports have also seen double-digit growth, while the volume of print and writing paper from the United States has shown negative growth and decreased. At the end of 2000, paper manufacturers around the world had prevented the accumulation of paper stocks by substantially reducing production, which had led to a reduction in the price of paper.
In the United States, since December 2000, the International Paper Group has reduced the production of uncoated non-wood pulp paper by 18% to approximately 820,000 tons by shutting down one production line of two manufacturing plants and a third manufacturing plant. According to AF&PA's Annual Capacity Survey, these reductions account for approximately 5.3% of the total production of US domestic counterparts. With the addition of 246,000 tons of production reductions from five other companies (including Willamette, Plainwell, and Crown Vantage, USA), the total production of non-coated non-wood pulp paper will be reduced by 1.1 million tons in 2001 and the following year. , showing a negative growth situation.
In recent years, the market share of non-coated non-wood pulp papers in commercial printing has gradually been occupied by non-wood pulp papers, however, there is an increasing trend on cut sheets, due to the expansion of the SOHO (home office) market. The reduction in total production eventually led to a major advantage in the new world-class commercial paper machines that produce low-priced paper.
Do not underestimate the potential of uncoated paper. With its increase in the cut sheet and offset printing market, it is estimated that uncoated paper can meet at least the development needs of GDP (gross domestic product). In addition, the impact of short live printing technology on the demand for non-coated non-wood pulp paper will be further investigated.
As fewer people engage in printing operations, productivity declines. The industry's new goal is to find “sweets†that are suitable for operation and cost-effectiveness, rather than pursue continuous use and minimum production costs. That applies only to lowering the average cost over the past two decades.
Annual gross output data analysis often describes the state of the US paper industry. The latest survey report shows the number of informal statistics of low-cost products around the world, the impact of the high US dollar exchange rate on the import and export environment, and the impact of mergers and acquisitions on eliminating unprofitable assets.
Changes in the market conditions and new technologies for grinding wood pulp paper are driving the largest growth in the printing paper industry. According to the AF&PA survey, non-coated and coated groundwood paper accounted for approximately 23% of the total US print and writing paper in 2000, and the current total of these two products is expected to be printed in 2003. More than two-thirds of the total amount of writing paper is still available.
Supercalendered papers have high transportation costs and prices, and this is where improvements need to be made. Commercial printers in magazines and catalogues are turning to the new SC-A non-coated wood pulp paper. Due to refinement and polishing technologies, there has been some improvement. The price and quality of the paper are more than that of LWC paper. competitive. According to the New York City SC Council, the paper used by the two large bill producers turned from LWC to SC-A. The lower end of the spectrum of polished wood pulp (SC-B, SC-C, and SNC) is gaining more and more share in the free interleaving product market.
According to the total data of AF&PA, the total amount of non-coated wood pulp paper in the United States is estimated to increase at a rate of 5.9% per year and can exceed 2.4 million tons by 2001-3. Much of this added value is due to the fact that many manufacturers have switched from producing newsprint to producing non-coated groundwood paper, and many machines have been retrofitted in Texas.
The total amount of coated wood pulp paper in the United States in 2001-3 is estimated to increase by 5.2 million tons, or by 3.4% annually. This relatively rapid growth partially reflects the shift in equipment from newsprint in 2001. This expansion includes the impact of three new coating machines developed by Bowater, which use imported newsprint as a basic material in the Nuway process.
Recycled paper: No change Recycled paper is an area that has not changed. The consumption of recycled paper by the U.S. federal government and environmentally aware state governments, schools, and businesses has been maintained, but there has been no increase. Although AF&PA did not disclose actual total production data for recycled paper, there has been no change in the consumption of recycled paper for printing and writing since 1995. At that time, the price of paper reached the highest point, and many companies no longer increased the purchase of recycled paper.
The original Fort James Group (now part of Georgia-Pacific) claimed last year that according to the company's market survey, the main factor that hinders the further development of recycled paper is that there are many other additional costs. The company believes that if the customer purchases recycled paper at a non-recycled price, the market for recycled office paper will double. As a result, the company's Camas manufacturing facility in Washington DC used a huge new waste paper deinking facility to start selling a series of recycled photocopy papers containing 10% recycled content, at about the same price as North America's non-recycled paper.
Another Georgia-Pacific remanufacturing company in Kalamazoo, Michigan, was not so fortunate. In late 2000, the company announced that it would permanently shut down used equipment and cancel the production of nearly 30,000 tons of recycled paper each year.
All in all, the development trend of the paper mills in the coming year has already reached a general outline. Declining demand from the economic downturn will eventually lead to further price declines, and printers will import more paper or continue to use more competitive paper. Due to the recent cost pressure brought by the increase in pulp prices, coupled with the increase in postage and the reduction in advertising inserts, the price of coated paper has a downward trend.
Unlike the above predictions, SC paper and ground wood pulp paper, which have gradually increased their share of the interleaf, catalog, magazine, and newspaper printing markets. In addition, with the passage of time, uncoated non-wood pulp paper will become a star in the paper market. Although the import of paper from Asia and Latin America may disrupt the balance between supply and demand, the U.S. manufacturer’s joint group will undoubtedly be able to regulate production with regulations.
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