Source: Zhuo Chuang Information
In 2019, the price of LNG market will be affected by macroeconomic regulation and control will be higher than in previous years. The price fluctuation of LNG market will be reduced, and the overall price may be lower than 2018.
In 2019, the average LNG ex-factory price in China is expected to be lower than 2018, and the ex-factory price fluctuates between 3700-4500/ton. The average annual price is lower than 4100/ton.
On the demand side, the domestic LNG market demand growth rate has slowed down overall, while the high price impact in 2018 may lead to a decline in some local demand. On the supply side, LNG receiving stations have a faster growth rate of production capacity, while the supply of imports is sufficient, steadily occupying the coastal market; the LNG market is well supplied. Under the policy control, the peak-to-valley difference in the LNG market price will continue to shrink in 2019, and the winter price will not increase significantly. The price trend of the LNG market will continue to stabilize.
The impact of supply and demand on LNG market prices
The slowdown in environmental protection requirements has slowed down the growth of overall natural gas demand, the supply of natural gas in pipelines is abundant, the natural gas infrastructure is perfect, and gas supply enterprises are interconnected, and natural gas supply is guaranteed in winter.
Due to the rising price of LNG market, the price advantage of LNG relative to alternative energy such as pipeline gas and electric power has been significantly reduced. The LNG consumption of some LNG downstream industrial users has decreased. At the same time, the price engine is no longer in market expansion. It is expected that the demand for LNG market will increase in 2019. Slow, some areas even experienced a decline in demand.
In 2019, the increase in the supply of China's LNG market was mainly due to the new production and reception stations. The layout of the receiving stations after the production was put into production may lead to a decline in competitive prices. However, the short-term supply factors are mainly due to the shortage of pipeline gas supply during the peak period or part of the demand for natural gas in winter. The domestic LNG plant is affected by the gas source gas restriction and the output is declining. The delay or decrease of the receiving station to the ship affects the short-term pricing of the imported gas.
Active regulation and control
In 2017, China's LNG market experienced an unprecedented surge, which exposed many shortcomings in China's natural gas and LNG markets. Since 2018, the peaking facilities for natural gas reserves have been accelerated, and the policy level has been intensifying the price of LNG market, which has led to a stable price trend in the LNG market.
Economic environment, the impact of alternative energy international natural gas market
The overall economic environment is sluggish, crude oil prices are at a low level, and the international natural gas market is in a phase of wide supply and demand balance, which has a certain impact on the domestic LNG market.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
Proofreading: Ge Hongyan
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