International furniture market analysis will increase trade openness

According to CSIL research, the total value of global furniture in 2013 will be as high as $422 billion. This estimate comes from official national and international data, including the 70 most important furniture producers. The total output value of furniture in the seven major developed countries, the United States, Italy, Germany, Japan, France, Canada, and the United Kingdom is about $134 billion, accounting for 45% of the world's total furniture output; while developing countries account for the remaining 55%. For the first time in the year, furniture production in developing countries exceeded half of the global output value, and now it is even higher.

International furniture trade

In 2013, the main furniture importing countries were the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Canada; the main furniture exporters were China, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United States.

Between 2002 and 2007, US imports increased significantly, from $17 billion (converted to current price) to $26 billion, while the United Kingdom rose from $4.3 billion to $8.6 billion. Imports from countries such as France, Germany and Canada have also grown considerably.

The US economic recession has had a great impact on furniture imports. In 2007, the United States imported furniture worth 26 billion US dollars, and in 2008 it fell to 24 billion US dollars. In 2009, it further fell to 19 billion US dollars. In 2010 and 2011, imports recovered slightly, to 2011. The year rebounded again to $23 billion.

The international furniture trade is further open

The most important structural change in the past 10 years has been the increasing openness of the international furniture market. Openness is defined as the amount of imports/consumption. In 2002, the international furniture market was open to 26%, and in 2007 it rose to 30.6%. In 2008 and 2009, due to the global economic recession, the openness of the international furniture market declined, lower than the maximum before the recession.

Global economic outlook

CSIL's research report believes that the performance of the entire global economy will be as shown in Table 1.

However, this outlook will still have real risk of decline. For example, due to the crisis of major economies, sovereign debt default or sharp rise in crude oil prices will cause the global economy to fall into recession again.

In the past 10 years, if the average of 10 years of total exports of 70 major furniture producing countries is compared with the average of their corresponding total imports of furniture, it can be seen that the growth of international furniture trade is faster than the growth of international furniture production. That is, the global trade volume of furniture manufacturers worldwide has increased by 1%.

In 2009, the international furniture trade volume reached US$95 billion, a decrease of 19% from 2008, and it will resume growth to US$106 billion in 2010 and increase to US$116 billion in 2011. If the global economy continues to grow as shown in Table 1, the international furniture trade volume in 2012 is expected to reach US$122 billion, and it will reach US$128 billion in 2013.