At 8 o'clock in the morning on September 16th, just after the second day of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, most of the shopping malls on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai are still ready to open for business. The Henderson Celebrity Shopping Center on the east side already has two rows of hundreds of people each. Long line.
A row from the first floor of the mall down the stationary escalator all the way to the second floor, there is a door leading to Apple Nanjing East Road shop. Here are the users who made an appointment online earlier to pick up the iPhone.
The other column is at the front entrance of the Apple Store. Those who did not make an online appointment to come directly to the Apple Store had to wait until 10 o'clock to officially open the door to buy iPhones. A considerable portion of them wanted to buy a new iPhone with Jet Black, but that day, only the top dozens of people could bring them home.
Bright black and all Plus are hard to buy
Since the sale began on September 16, Apple has been hanging out black outdoor advertisements. However, buying the dark and reflective iPhone 7 Plus in the advertisement is too difficult. Unless you are in the first two minutes after the pre-sale at 9:00 on September 9th, or if you are like these people, you are in a row for a few hours.
In the next two days, the most abundant Apple official retail store has not had much stock. The reporter visited four apple stores in Beijing and Shanghai on September 18. Many of the customers who came to the store were asking whether there was any bright black, but the replies in these stores were similar. "No matter what kind of black, you have to go to the official website at 8 o'clock in the morning to grab the spot."
Several store staff said that since the sale of thousands of iPhone 7 and 7 Plus before the sale on the 16th, only a few hundred new machines arrived every day for two days. Depending on the location of the store, the bright black models range from a few stations to 0 stations.
An Apple clerk at Shanghai’s Wujiaochang Store listened to reporters that Nanjing East Road Store had several stocks per day and felt that “in the end it was different.†The relatively small amount of family traffic in the Apple Store since the 16th, did not get a bright black.
Now if you go to the official website to book, iPhone 7's bright black needs to wait 3 - 5 weeks to send it to you. The iPhone 7 Plus has to wait until November for bright blacks and 2 - 3 weeks for other colors.
Due to shortage of goods, Apple authorized stores can fry the price to 20,000
The official channel is difficult to buy, and it is even harder in other places. The Apple flagship store opened on Tmall has already dropped the iPhone 7 Plus. The iPhone 7 was only available in black (matte), gold, pink and silver colors on the morning of the 18th (there was no 32GB version). By noon, black has sold out.
JD.com has only the gold and rose gold iPhone 7 available, and all 7 Plus are sold out.
An Apple Authorized Store near Dongzhimen in Beijing is in stock. However, Apple’s official website did not sell these iPhones at the original price in the listed authorized stores: The bright black iPhone 7 Plus 256GB with original price of 7988 was sold for 20,000 units, and the bright black iPhone 7 with 256GB of 6988 was priced at 13,888.
Even non-black iPhone 7 models are offered at prices ranging from 6188 to 11888, which are between 800 and 5000 yuan more than the original price.
"Now the price is outside, and the supply is too small." The staff of the Apple authorized store explained the reason for the increase. He said that after the batch sold out on the 16th, the company failed to get any new models from Apple and had to find their own goods. It just reached 40 on the 18th.
According to the contact information provided by Apple's official website, we contacted approximately 40 authorized Apple stores in Beijing, Changchun, Tianjin, Nanjing and Shanghai. In addition to a few completely out of stock, there is an increase of hundreds to tens of thousands to sell new iPhones.
Several staff willing to explain the availability of iPhone 7 also admitted that since the first shipment, Apple has not yet provided a new iPhone 7.
iPhone 7 seems to have returned to the iPhone 4 into China or iPhone 5s "local gold" just released. Apple Store strictly controls the price, but there is no goods. Most other places are selling at a price increase.
Obviously, Apple itself also underestimated the enthusiasm of users for the iPhone 7
From the pre-sale on the 9th to the week before last Friday's close, Apple's share price has risen by 11.43%, and the entire company's market value has soared by more than US$60 billion. This shows that iPhone 7 sales performance far exceeds Wall Street's expectations.
Not just the outside world, Apple itself also underestimated the early sales of the iPhone 7.
You can also see from the changes in the number of purchases that Apple is encouraging you to buy more iPhones: This time, Apple stipulates that each person can purchase four iPhones 7 (two models each), and last year this limit was two. station.
Prior to the iPhone 7, sales of iPhones, which accounted for most of Apple’s revenue, fell 16.3% and 15% respectively in the first two quarters of this year. Cook feels this trend will continue. When the financial report was announced in July, Apple predicted that company revenue will be between US$455-47 billion in July-September this year, which is about 10% less than the iPhone 6s last year.
Based on this forecast, Apple has prepared fewer iPhone 7s. Companies that produce parts for the iPhone 7 have predicted in their own financial reports that orders will be reduced in the third quarter of this year.
Japanese company Alps provides camera anti-shake components for the iPhone. They expect that in the third quarter of this year, that is, the first three months after the iPhone 7 began selling, its own revenue in electronic components will be 6.7% lower than the same period last year.
This is considered a more optimistic company, because the 4.7-inch iPhone 7 also used its parts, and last year only the 5.5-inch version supported optical image stabilization.
Taiwan Riyueguang has orders for packaging and testing of Apple chips, and they expect that this part of the third-quarter revenue will drop 13% from the same period last year; JDI, one of the major screen suppliers of the iPhone, is forecast to decline by 20%.
Enthusiasm for users determines how many phones Apple will prepare.
Apple uses a relatively traditional distribution model. In addition to the official website order and hundreds of Apple's direct-operated stores around the world, they are sold to other channels (ecommerce, carriers, authorized stores) before they sell the iPhone to consumers.
If you overestimate the demand, there will be too many product backlogs and losses. In April of this year, Cook acknowledged at the revenue meeting that the company overestimated its popularity in the first two quarters of the iPhone 6s release, and finally spent more than $2 billion on the iPhone that was backlogged in the sales channel.
This time Apple also misjudged the enthusiasm of its users, but it was no longer an overestimate.
There is also a problem with the distribution of colors
Bright black has become the most constrained iPhone, which is not only difficult to produce, but also related to Apple's stocking distribution of color models.
Contrast to the shortage of bright black products is the abundant supply of rose gold. Apple stores sold in other colors are also available in rose gold and gold.
We ordered an iPhone 7 of this color after the sale, and its delivery date was recently advanced. It was mentioned from late October to late September. This is definitely not going to happen to both blacks.
If you bought the iPhone 5s three years ago, you must remember that the supply of the gold version is almost exactly the same as it is now.
At that time, Apple greatly underestimated the preference of Asian consumers for gold, and was out of stock less than one day after being listed. In the first month, the Chinese market even had only black stocks.
In the online stores in Hong Kong and Singapore, the golden version of iPhone 5s also has a longer delivery time, and the first batch of bookings are scheduled to be in October.
Pure black is also a classic color matching iPhone, iPhone 3G, 3GS, 4, 4s, 5 these generations have black. Until Apple iPhone 5 lost paint, Apple switched to deep space gray. Now this classic black is back.
Bright black is the most obvious feature of the iPhone 7 distinguishing it from the previous two generations.
And Apple itself is also guiding this trend, in almost all external visual images such as advertising and official website, iPhone 7 words on the edge, must be bright black iPhone 7 Plus.
A statistic from Slice shows that in the 48 hours that the US consumers started booking, 46% chose dark black, followed by bright black (23%), and less than a third of the people chose to buy. Models other than black.
Looks similar to iPhone 6, but iPhone 7 is more troublesome to produce
Although more people bought black, but the bright black version is the most out of stock, which may be related to its production process.
The news that the reporter got from an Apple store is that of the newly arrived mobile phones, only one of the 1,000 units may have a bright black version.
The bright black you can't buy is a new thing that costs more. Ivey briefly explained its production principle in a video. Apple will do a "3D rotary polishing" of an aluminum alloy back shell, using a special compound to reciprocally wash the metal surface, followed by an anodizing process, and finally Polishing this surface... In short, it's more complicated. "Connection" quoted industry insiders as saying that this process may take at least 40 minutes more than other colors of iPhone.
Double cameras are also more difficult to produce.
Shooting is the iPhone's biggest technological advance. The iPhone 7 Plus uses a dual camera for the first time, and with the new waterproof features, it is more difficult to produce.
According to the Nikkei news, many parts suppliers are still solving the yield problem until August of this year. If Apple insists on releasing new mobile phones in September, it may not have enough sources at the beginning. Now this problem really happened.
On the one hand production difficulties, on the other hand more people took a look at the dual camera iPhone 7 Plus.
Slice's statistics show that within 48 hours after pre-sale opening, consumers who order iPhone 7 Plus have more orders than iPhone 7, which is exactly the opposite of the situation in the previous two years.
Finally, Samsung also made great efforts for the shortage of iPhone 7 Plus.
This year Apple has a new rival - Samsung's curved screen phone, Galaxy S7 Edge once overtook iPhone 6s this year to become the best selling smart phone in the United States.
Shortly before the iPhone 7 was released, Samsung released Note 7, which also used a curved screen, and sold more than 2 million units in a few days.
But then there was the Note 7 self-ignition news, followed by Samsung’s recall of Note 7 globally in early September. During the recall process, more Note 7 burned. U.S. airlines also began requiring passengers not to open Note 7.
Samsung was originally the only Android manufacturer to sell a large number of mobile phones at the price of the iPhone.
A report by market research firm MarketStragist stated that 33% of Samsung users expressed interest in the iPhone 7. I don't know how many users who intended to start Note 7 after the burning incident bought the iPhone 7 Plus.
Is pre-selling so hot that the iPhone 7 has reversed the downturn in the iPhone 6s?
Nobody can answer this question yet.
At first it was impossible to buy, and later there was a precedent for products that exceeded supply. In 2015, the Apple Watch was also sold out of stock and its supply was severely insufficient. However, this situation did not last long, and Apple Watch sold in the fifth quarter has been significantly lower than a year ago.
Apple also relies on the same iPhone, iPhone 5s gold in the early stage of the sale is seriously out of stock, but that year iPhone sales only slightly higher than the iPhone 5.
Predicting user demand is not an easy task. For this reason, Apple generally requires Asian suppliers to keep inventory for at least two weeks in order to adjust their assembly production at any time based on market feedback.
Apple has begun to adjust. According to Taiwanese media Digitimes, Apple temporarily added 10% of its orders to chip makers on the eve of the iPhone 7 release. After the release of iPhone 7, Apple added some additional orders.
Bloomberg quoted supply chain sources as saying that in previous years, Apple would also make adjustments after the sale, basically until mid-October, after the new iPhone had been sold for a month, the order volume would have stabilized.
Only then will we be able to determine how well the iPhone 7 is selling.
However, the current shortage of the iPhone 7 can finally make Cooksson who has just delivered two quarters of decline numbers. Out of stock is always better than selling it.
The title map comes from Visual China
Source: Curiosity Daily
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